Betting Lines
| Spread | FRES -14.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.0 Under |
| Money | FRES -1300 SJSU +800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FRES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FRES +15 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | FRES -17.8 (-2.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.1 (-10.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FRES -14.4 (+0.6) | 148.8 (-5.8) | 89% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FRES -14.6 (+0.4) | 146.9 (-3.9) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FRES -16.5 (-1.5) | 149.9 (-6.9) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FRES -15.8 (-0.8) | 148.7 (-5.7) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | FRES 82 – 68 SJSU |
| Jan 7, 2026 | FRES 70 – 55 SJSU |
| Mar 8, 2025 | SJSU 92 – 68 FRES |
| Feb 5, 2025 | SJSU 94 – 91 FRES |
| Feb 7, 2024 | FRES 69 – 57 SJSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FRES | SJSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-12 | 5-16 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 3-13 |
| Home | 7-5 | 4-6 |
| Away | 4-6 | 0-8 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.8 | 63.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.5 | 82.4 |
| Massey | -3.3 (#224) | -18.0 (#338) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.42 (#204) | -2.93 (#331) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.21 (#183) | -4.49 (#332) |
| RPI | 0.517 (#138) | 0.394 (#298) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FRES | SJSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.5% | 33.2% |
| 3PT% | 24.1% | 29.2% |
| REB / G | 36.5 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.59 | 0.65 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.1% | 38.7% |
| TOV% | 23.0% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 32.2% | 20.6% |
| FT Rate | 19.4% | 24.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.5% | 53.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 13.4% |
| DRB% | 81.1% | 66.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 37.1% | 28.9% |
Game Analysis
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