Betting Lines
| Spread | UNH -1.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UMBC +15 | 123 | Lost |
| Massey | UNH -0.1 (-15.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.3 (-10.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 58% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNH -1.2 (-16.2) | 134.6 (-11.6) | 54% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNH -1.0 (-16.0) | 131.0 (-8.0) | 57% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNH -0.4 (-15.4) | 134.4 (-11.4) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNH -0.6 (-15.6) | 134.2 (-11.2) | 46% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | UMBC 84 – 69 UNH |
| Feb 14, 2026 | UMBC 85 – 63 UNH |
| Jan 10, 2026 | UMBC 75 – 74 UNH |
| Feb 7, 2025 | UNH 79 – 78 UMBC |
| Jan 16, 2025 | UNH 79 – 76 UMBC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNH | UMBC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-9 | 14-6 |
| Conference | 9-6 | 10-4 |
| Home | 5-6 | 5-4 |
| Away | 5-3 | 9-2 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.8 | 69.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.3 | 64.9 |
| Massey | -2.6 (#211) | 0.5 (#159) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.24 (#188) | 0.01 (#169) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.23 (#185) | -0.23 (#184) |
| RPI | 0.494 (#174) | 0.452 (#231) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNH | UMBC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.8% | 45.9% |
| 3PT% | 28.6% | 35.9% |
| REB / G | 38.5 | 36.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 8.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.84 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.6% | 52.4% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 20.5% |
| ORB% | 27.2% | 25.4% |
| FT Rate | 23.5% | 25.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.4% | 45.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.5% | 20.0% |
| DRB% | 81.1% | 73.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.6% | 17.6% |
Game Analysis
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