Betting Lines
| Spread | EVAN -5.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.0 Under |
| Money | EVAN -220 ILST +190 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | EVAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | EVAN +9 | 105 | Won |
| Massey | EVAN -6.4 (+2.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.5 (-38.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | EVAN -4.8 (+4.2) | 139.9 (-34.9) | 70% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | EVAN -4.4 (+4.6) | 135.1 (-30.1) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | EVAN -5.4 (+3.6) | 140.5 (-35.5) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | EVAN -5.1 (+3.9) | 140.7 (-35.7) | 68% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 10, 2026 | EVAN 88 – 80 ILST |
| Jan 1, 2026 | ILST 73 – 47 EVAN |
| Mar 2, 2025 | ILST 62 – 53 EVAN |
| Jan 9, 2025 | EVAN 69 – 51 ILST |
| Mar 8, 2024 | EVAN 59 – 53 ILST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | EVAN | ILST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-16 | 7-18 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 4-14 |
| Home | 8-4 | 3-8 |
| Away | 1-10 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.8 | 67.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.6 | 73.4 |
| Massey | -5.1 (#248) | -8.4 (#290) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.30 (#190) | -1.47 (#272) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.56 (#200) | -1.67 (#260) |
| RPI | 0.475 (#197) | 0.395 (#296) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | EVAN | ILST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.5% | 43.2% |
| 3PT% | 38.0% | 37.0% |
| REB / G | 29.4 | 33.9 |
| OREB / G | 5.8 | 8.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.04 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.7% | 50.8% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 19.7% |
| ORB% | 17.4% | 23.6% |
| FT Rate | 24.9% | 14.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.6% | 55.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 74.4% | 73.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.9% | 24.5% |
Game Analysis
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