Betting Lines
| Spread | UAPB -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 130.0 Over |
| Money | UAPB -250 ALST +205 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UAPB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UAPB +9 | 173 | Won |
| Massey | UAPB -5.7 (+3.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 127.5 (+45.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UAPB -6.1 (+2.9) | 131.2 (+41.8) | 75% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UAPB -4.5 (+4.5) | 139.0 (+34.0) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UAPB -7.6 (+1.4) | 140.7 (+32.3) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UAPB -7.2 (+1.8) | 137.7 (+35.3) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | ALST 79 – 61 UAPB |
| Jan 5, 2026 | UAPB 90 – 79 ALST |
| Feb 15, 2025 | ALST 75 – 63 UAPB |
| Jan 7, 2025 | ALST 93 – 91 UAPB |
| Feb 17, 2024 | UAPB 80 – 74 ALST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UAPB | ALST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 4-21 | 4-14 |
| Conference | 3-12 | 4-14 |
| Home | 2-3 | 3-6 |
| Away | 2-17 | 1-8 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 62.0 | 64.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.8 | 71.6 |
| Massey | -16.9 (#336) | -19.4 (#341) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.77 (#288) | -3.83 (#337) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.08 (#313) | -6.04 (#340) |
| RPI | 0.444 (#243) | 0.153 (#341) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UAPB | ALST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 36.0% | 29.2% |
| 3PT% | 30.6% | 16.7% |
| REB / G | 33.8 | 41.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 15.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.57 | 0.34 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 40.6% | 31.6% |
| TOV% | 23.0% | 28.8% |
| ORB% | 26.4% | 34.5% |
| FT Rate | 27.0% | 24.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.6% | 47.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.5% | 24.2% |
| DRB% | 68.2% | 72.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.1% | 19.1% |
Game Analysis
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