Betting Lines
| Spread | FIU -4.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | MTSU +155 FIU -175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MTSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MTSU +11 | 123 | Won |
| Massey | FIU -4.4 (+15.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.7 (-25.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 19% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 16% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FIU -2.2 (+13.2) | 143.2 (-20.2) | 37% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FIU -2.5 (+13.5) | 145.5 (-22.5) | 36% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FIU -1.8 (+12.8) | 145.2 (-22.2) | 41% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | FIU -2.8 (+13.8) | 144.1 (-21.1) | 42% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | MTSU 73 – 67 FIU |
| Feb 5, 2026 | FIU 88 – 84 MTSU |
| Mar 8, 2025 | MTSU 78 – 56 FIU |
| Jan 3, 2025 | MTSU 73 – 69 FIU |
| Feb 10, 2024 | MTSU 68 – 66 FIU |
Game Analysis
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