Betting Lines
| Spread | NCSU -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.0 Under |
| Money | NCSU -280 MIA +240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NCSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MIA +5 | 123 | Lost |
| Massey | NCSU -12.6 (-17.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.5 (-20.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NCSU -10.1 (-15.1) | 141.6 (-18.6) | 86% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NCSU -8.9 (-13.9) | 140.3 (-17.3) | 80% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NCSU -9.9 (-14.9) | 142.5 (-19.5) | 84% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NCSU -9.7 (-14.7) | 141.7 (-18.7) | 83% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | MIA 77 – 76 NCSU |
| Mar 8, 2025 | MIA 72 – 70 NCSU |
| Jan 31, 2024 | NCSU 74 – 68 MIA |
| Jan 14, 2023 | NCSU 83 – 81 MIA |
| Dec 10, 2022 | MIA 80 – 73 NCSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NCSU | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-11 | 10-17 |
| Conference | 9-8 | 4-15 |
| Home | 7-4 | 7-8 |
| Away | 5-5 | 1-8 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.8 | 66.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.7 | 71.0 |
| Massey | 12.4 (#32) | 2.9 (#120) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.83 (#59) | 0.11 (#163) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.58 (#59) | 0.32 (#155) |
| RPI | 0.550 (#91) | 0.486 (#184) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NCSU | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.4% | 42.6% |
| 3PT% | 36.8% | 27.1% |
| REB / G | 34.2 | 39.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.17 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.5% | 47.3% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 20.7% |
| ORB% | 28.6% | 30.1% |
| FT Rate | 21.0% | 26.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.1% | 47.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 26.5% | 20.1% |
| DRB% | 68.2% | 76.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.8% | 14.2% |
Game Analysis
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