Betting Lines
| Spread | UVA -9.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 131.0 Under |
| Money | BC +370 UVA -450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVA +12 | 110 | Lost |
| Massey | UVA -8.6 (-3.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.5 (-32.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 34% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UVA -6.1 (-5.9) | 141.5 (-31.5) | 30% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UVA -6.9 (-5.1) | 136.5 (-26.5) | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UVA -7.8 (-4.2) | 139.5 (-29.5) | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UVA -6.0 (-6.0) | 141.9 (-31.9) | 27% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | UVA 73 – 66 BC |
| Jan 22, 2025 | UVA 74 – 56 BC |
| Mar 15, 2024 | UVA 66 – 60 BC |
| Feb 29, 2024 | UVA 72 – 68 BC |
| Feb 23, 2023 | BC 63 – 48 UVA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BC | UVA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 4-16 | 18-7 |
| Conference | 2-11 | 13-4 |
| Home | 3-5 | 10-1 |
| Away | 0-7 | 6-3 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L3 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.3 | 65.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.5 | 58.2 |
| Massey | 0.9 (#148) | 12.7 (#29) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.19 (#184) | 1.06 (#89) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.28 (#161) | 2.10 (#70) |
| RPI | 0.498 (#170) | 0.549 (#94) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BC | UVA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.3% | 49.7% |
| 3PT% | 33.1% | 35.4% |
| REB / G | 33.0 | 32.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 7.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.77 | 1.60 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.9% | 56.9% |
| TOV% | 20.9% | 13.6% |
| ORB% | 25.8% | 25.2% |
| FT Rate | 21.6% | 20.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.0% | 49.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.0% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 69.9% | 78.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.1% | 17.7% |
Game Analysis
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