Betting Lines
| Spread | MSU -6.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | MSU -260 PUR +220 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PUR +1 | 109 | Lost |
| Massey | PUR -1.9 (+0.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.1 (-35.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 69% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 74% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSU -0.2 (-1.2) | 143.3 (-34.3) | 54% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PUR -1.0 (+0.0) | 136.4 (-27.4) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PUR -0.6 (-0.4) | 141.5 (-32.5) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MSU -0.6 (-1.6) | 143.0 (-34.0) | 53% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2026 | MSU 76 – 74 PUR |
| Feb 19, 2025 | MSU 75 – 66 PUR |
| Mar 15, 2024 | PUR 67 – 62 MSU |
| Mar 3, 2024 | PUR 80 – 74 MSU |
| Jan 29, 2023 | PUR 77 – 61 MSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSU | PUR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-13 | 18-10 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 13-6 |
| Home | 12-3 | 11-1 |
| Away | 3-8 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.4 | 71.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.1 | 66.7 |
| Massey | 5.5 (#92) | 10.5 (#43) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.90 (#54) | 1.66 (#69) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.18 (#37) | 2.75 (#53) |
| RPI | 0.539 (#103) | 0.569 (#74) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSU | PUR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 46.1% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 37.9% |
| REB / G | 39.3 | 36.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.45 | 1.24 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.7% | 53.6% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 19.8% |
| ORB% | 31.1% | 31.0% |
| FT Rate | 21.6% | 17.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.6% | 50.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.8% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 77.3% | 78.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.3% | 21.7% |
Game Analysis
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