I'm just like a turtle crawling out of my shell. "Boombastic" - Shaggy
Cajundome · January 9, 2021
Betting Lines
Spread LR -2.0 Push
O/U 147.0 Over
Money UL +110 / LR -130
Model Predictions
Spread Total UL win
Actual LR +2 154 Lost
Massey LR -4.2 (+2.2) — —
Massey Totals — 152.3 (+1.7) —
Bradley-Terry — — 73% ✗
Weighted B-T — — 78% ✗
Efficiency Plus ML ★ LR -0.7 (-1.3) 145.8 (+8.2) 53% ✗
Baseline Tuned ML LR -0.1 (-1.9) 147.3 (+6.7) 51% ✗
Baseline ML LR -0.7 (-1.3) 149.3 (+4.7) 52% ✗
Baseline Plus ML UL -1.4 (-3.4) 147.2 (+6.8) 59% ✗

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Feb 3, 2022 UL 75 – 51 LR
Feb 27, 2021 LR 69 – 59 UL
Feb 27, 2021 UL 66 – 61 LR
Jan 9, 2021 UL 66 – 64 LR

Game Analysis

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