Betting Lines
| Spread | COFC -2.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 127.5 Under |
| Money | COFC -130 DREX +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | COFC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | COFC +1 | 121 | Won |
| Massey | DREX -4.2 (+5.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.1 (-7.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 16% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 14% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DREX -3.1 (+4.1) | 133.9 (-12.9) | 35% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DREX -2.2 (+3.2) | 130.1 (-9.1) | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DREX -3.0 (+4.0) | 135.1 (-14.1) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | DREX -2.6 (+3.6) | 134.4 (-13.4) | 51% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 30, 2025 | COFC 72 – 63 DREX |
| Feb 22, 2025 | DREX 64 – 55 COFC |
| Feb 10, 2024 | COFC 80 – 70 DREX |
| Feb 3, 2023 | DREX 70 – 69 COFC |
| Feb 26, 2022 | DREX 80 – 79 COFC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | COFC | DREX |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-10 | 12-8 |
| Conference | 6-4 | 4-5 |
| Home | 8-6 | 3-2 |
| Away | 1-3 | 4-5 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 5-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.0 | 70.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.8 | 67.4 |
| Massey | -5.6 (#255) | 1.7 (#138) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.56 (#280) | 0.65 (#122) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.86 (#271) | 0.60 (#140) |
| RPI | 0.433 (#256) | 0.529 (#120) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | COFC | DREX |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.3% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 36.7% | 32.1% |
| REB / G | 33.6 | 35.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.87 | 1.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.8% | 49.6% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 27.0% | 29.5% |
| FT Rate | 23.1% | 24.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.8% | 48.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 20.8% |
| DRB% | 77.1% | 79.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.0% | 23.6% |
Game Analysis
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