Betting Lines
| Spread | GCU -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
| Money | TAR +430 GCU -590 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TAR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GCU +3 | 147 | Lost |
| Massey | GCU -5.4 (+2.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.8 (+12.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 46% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GCU -4.2 (+1.2) | 137.0 (+10.0) | 36% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GCU -5.3 (+2.3) | 138.3 (+8.7) | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GCU -7.7 (+4.7) | 137.6 (+9.4) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GCU -5.5 (+2.5) | 139.9 (+7.1) | 28% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2025 | GCU 64 – 60 TAR |
| Jan 19, 2025 | GCU 88 – 64 TAR |
| Feb 23, 2024 | TAR 77 – 74 GCU |
| Jan 14, 2024 | GCU 74 – 48 TAR |
| Jan 29, 2023 | TAR 81 – 62 GCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TAR | GCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-10 | 17-7 |
| Conference | 5-7 | 9-3 |
| Home | 6-3 | 10-3 |
| Away | 4-7 | 5-1 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | W3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.9 | 71.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.1 | 62.8 |
| Massey | -5.0 (#245) | 3.6 (#112) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.10 (#246) | -0.36 (#196) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.57 (#255) | 0.14 (#166) |
| RPI | 0.439 (#252) | 0.444 (#242) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TAR | GCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.6% | 50.0% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 29.3% |
| REB / G | 30.0 | 39.8 |
| OREB / G | 5.5 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.34 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.3% | 55.0% |
| TOV% | 34.7% | 21.5% |
| ORB% | 19.3% | 33.5% |
| FT Rate | 41.8% | 20.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.6% | 48.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.7% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 67.1% | 80.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 43.3% | 18.2% |
Game Analysis
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