Betting Lines
| Spread | UML -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.0 Under |
| Money | UML -135 HART +115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UML win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UML +9 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | UML -0.7 (+8.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.6 (+4.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 32% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 32% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UML -0.2 (+8.8) | 131.0 (+2.0) | 53% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UML -0.1 (+8.9) | 131.0 (+2.0) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UML -0.6 (+8.4) | 130.6 (+2.4) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UML -0.1 (+8.9) | 132.2 (+0.8) | 53% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 6, 2023 | UML 70 – 48 HART |
| Mar 3, 2022 | UML 83 – 73 HART |
| Feb 7, 2022 | UML 85 – 75 HART |
| Mar 13, 2021 | HART 64 – 50 UML |
| Jan 10, 2021 | HART 75 – 58 UML |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UML | HART |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-12 | 15-9 |
| Conference | 7-8 | 8-6 |
| Home | 3-4 | 10-1 |
| Away | 6-6 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.5 | 65.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.9 | 63.9 |
| Massey | -4.6 (#239) | -2.1 (#201) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.36 (#266) | -0.04 (#177) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.26 (#236) | 0.08 (#173) |
| RPI | 0.426 (#263) | 0.494 (#173) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UML | HART |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.4% | 42.5% |
| 3PT% | 32.4% | 36.7% |
| REB / G | 35.4 | 33.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.7 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.69 | 0.83 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.0% | 50.3% |
| TOV% | 23.0% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 26.4% | 25.7% |
| FT Rate | 29.1% | 20.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.4% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 21.0% |
| DRB% | 73.4% | 72.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.7% | 14.9% |
Game Analysis
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