Betting Lines
| Spread | UML -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UML win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UML +10 | 160 | Won |
| Massey | UML -6.6 (+3.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.8 (+21.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UML -4.3 (+5.7) | 136.7 (+23.3) | 69% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UML -4.1 (+5.9) | 136.5 (+23.5) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UML -4.7 (+5.3) | 136.9 (+23.1) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UML -4.8 (+5.2) | 136.2 (+23.8) | 64% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 6, 2023 | UML 70 – 48 HART |
| Mar 3, 2022 | UML 83 – 73 HART |
| Mar 13, 2021 | HART 64 – 50 UML |
| Jan 10, 2021 | HART 75 – 58 UML |
| Jan 9, 2021 | UML 71 – 62 HART |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UML | HART |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-16 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 9-9 |
| Home | 8-6 | 7-5 |
| Away | 6-9 | 5-13 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.5 | 69.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.9 | 72.2 |
| Massey | -4.8 (#252) | -8.3 (#305) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.17 (#271) | -2.28 (#334) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.73 (#283) | -2.73 (#332) |
| RPI | 0.456 (#253) | 0.416 (#313) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UML | HART |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.3% | 45.3% |
| 3PT% | 29.4% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 32.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 7.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.85 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.3% | 53.2% |
| TOV% | 19.2% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 29.1% | 22.5% |
| FT Rate | 18.0% | 19.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.6% | 52.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.0% | 15.9% |
| DRB% | 68.6% | 72.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.8% | 19.9% |
Game Analysis
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