Betting Lines
| Spread | UML -3.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | UML -150 HART +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UML win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HART +17 | 133 | Lost |
| Massey | UML -2.9 (-19.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.3 (+2.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 61% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UML -2.1 (-19.1) | 132.6 (+0.4) | 60% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UML -1.2 (-18.2) | 130.8 (+2.2) | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UML -2.2 (-19.2) | 132.4 (+0.6) | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UML -1.9 (-18.9) | 132.9 (+0.1) | 59% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 6, 2023 | UML 70 – 48 HART |
| Mar 3, 2022 | UML 83 – 73 HART |
| Feb 7, 2022 | UML 85 – 75 HART |
| Mar 13, 2021 | HART 64 – 50 UML |
| Jan 9, 2021 | UML 71 – 62 HART |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UML | HART |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-12 | 15-9 |
| Conference | 7-8 | 8-6 |
| Home | 3-4 | 10-1 |
| Away | 6-6 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.5 | 65.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.9 | 63.9 |
| Massey | -3.6 (#225) | -3.6 (#226) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.94 (#241) | -0.88 (#233) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.85 (#219) | -1.01 (#229) |
| RPI | 0.454 (#231) | 0.468 (#211) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UML | HART |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.2% | 42.9% |
| 3PT% | 32.0% | 36.2% |
| REB / G | 34.6 | 32.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.3 | 8.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.70 | 0.79 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.6% | 50.6% |
| TOV% | 22.8% | 19.6% |
| ORB% | 25.6% | 25.1% |
| FT Rate | 29.9% | 19.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.0% | 50.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 21.0% |
| DRB% | 74.0% | 73.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.5% | 16.6% |
Game Analysis
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