Betting Lines
| Spread | Pick'em Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Under |
| Money | PFW -110 UIC -110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PFW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PFW +33 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | UIC -4.0 (+37.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.8 (-4.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 33% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 19% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UIC -0.9 (+33.9) | 147.4 (-4.4) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UIC -1.7 (+34.7) | 147.0 (-4.0) | 41% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UIC -1.9 (+34.9) | 147.9 (-4.9) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UIC -1.8 (+34.8) | 151.2 (-8.2) | 47% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2022 | PFW 78 – 72 UIC |
| Feb 13, 2022 | PFW 73 – 66 UIC |
| Jan 9, 2021 | PFW 96 – 89 UIC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PFW | UIC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-15 | 9-13 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 6-10 |
| Home | 5-6 | 7-4 |
| Away | 3-9 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.1 | 67.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.7 | 72.3 |
| Massey | -8.3 (#287) | -1.2 (#180) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.48 (#273) | -0.20 (#186) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.08 (#278) | -0.02 (#177) |
| RPI | 0.369 (#313) | 0.468 (#209) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PFW | UIC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.8% | 43.8% |
| 3PT% | 39.1% | 36.8% |
| REB / G | 29.7 | 36.1 |
| OREB / G | 8.6 | 8.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.70 | 1.37 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 59.1% | 51.8% |
| TOV% | 28.1% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 31.9% | 23.3% |
| FT Rate | 27.5% | 15.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.9% | 43.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.7% | 14.0% |
| DRB% | 64.6% | 73.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.4% | 26.2% |
Game Analysis
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