Betting Lines
| Spread | DUKE -13.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.0 Over |
| Money | DUKE -1300 WAKE +800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DUKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DUKE +11 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | WAKE -1.8 (+12.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.8 (+10.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUKE -0.8 (+10.2) | 140.4 (+6.6) | 58% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUKE -2.0 (+9.0) | 135.0 (+12.0) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUKE -2.1 (+8.9) | 140.1 (+6.9) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DUKE -0.7 (+10.3) | 140.7 (+6.3) | 59% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | DUKE 90 – 69 WAKE |
| Mar 4, 2025 | DUKE 93 – 60 WAKE |
| Jan 25, 2025 | DUKE 63 – 56 WAKE |
| Feb 24, 2024 | WAKE 83 – 79 DUKE |
| Feb 13, 2024 | DUKE 77 – 69 WAKE |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DUKE | WAKE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-11 | 6-16 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 3-15 |
| Home | 8-5 | 5-6 |
| Away | 3-6 | 1-9 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L8 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.0 | 66.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.5 | 72.4 |
| Massey | 2.9 (#118) | 7.8 (#68) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.85 (#108) | -0.71 (#226) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.50 (#93) | -0.70 (#212) |
| RPI | 0.486 (#185) | 0.430 (#259) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DUKE | WAKE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 49.3% |
| 3PT% | 35.6% | 36.7% |
| REB / G | 38.3 | 31.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 7.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.06 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.9% | 57.0% |
| TOV% | 19.7% | 20.9% |
| ORB% | 33.6% | 24.2% |
| FT Rate | 16.5% | 25.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.0% | 51.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.4% | 24.9% |
| DRB% | 75.2% | 81.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.3% | 22.0% |
Game Analysis
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