Betting Lines
| Spread | JAX -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | JAX -140 UNF +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JAX win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JAX +1 | 131 | Won |
| Massey | JAX -5.4 (-4.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.5 (-10.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JAX -4.5 (-3.5) | 140.8 (-9.8) | 69% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JAX -3.9 (-2.9) | 140.7 (-9.7) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JAX -6.0 (-5.0) | 140.9 (-9.9) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | JAX -4.9 (-3.9) | 140.0 (-9.0) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | JAX 85 – 61 UNF |
| Feb 14, 2026 | JAX 63 – 56 UNF |
| Feb 21, 2025 | UNF 77 – 73 JAX |
| Feb 1, 2025 | UNF 81 – 78 JAX |
| Feb 24, 2024 | JAX 62 – 50 UNF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JAX | UNF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-13 | 8-15 |
| Conference | 5-9 | 6-6 |
| Home | 7-5 | 5-3 |
| Away | 4-8 | 3-10 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.7 | 68.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.1 | 75.3 |
| Massey | -6.6 (#272) | -8.9 (#298) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.94 (#240) | -1.91 (#298) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.30 (#238) | -2.41 (#289) |
| RPI | 0.444 (#240) | 0.400 (#286) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JAX | UNF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.1% | 41.3% |
| 3PT% | 32.1% | 35.2% |
| REB / G | 32.1 | 34.4 |
| OREB / G | 8.4 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.69 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.5% | 49.7% |
| TOV% | 21.4% | 24.5% |
| ORB% | 24.3% | 28.0% |
| FT Rate | 21.9% | 17.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.8% | 49.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.7% | 14.4% |
| DRB% | 66.4% | 61.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.3% | 22.4% |
Game Analysis
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