Betting Lines
| Spread | ALA -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.0 Over |
| Money | AUB +175 ALA -200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AUB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALA +4 | 184 | Lost |
| Massey | ALA -4.8 (+0.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.3 (+32.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 30% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 19% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALA -1.5 (-2.5) | 147.0 (+37.0) | 40% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALA -2.5 (-1.5) | 151.6 (+32.4) | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALA -2.3 (-1.7) | 150.8 (+33.2) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ALA -1.7 (-2.3) | 146.5 (+37.5) | 42% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | ALA 96 – 84 AUB |
| Feb 7, 2026 | ALA 96 – 92 AUB |
| Mar 8, 2025 | ALA 93 – 91 AUB |
| Feb 15, 2025 | AUB 94 – 85 ALA |
| Feb 8, 2024 | AUB 99 – 81 ALA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AUB | ALA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-14 | 26-7 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 16-2 |
| Home | 8-5 | 12-1 |
| Away | 3-8 | 7-3 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 7-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | W1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.2 | 79.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.4 | 70.1 |
| Massey | 5.1 (#99) | 13.1 (#25) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.03 (#94) | 2.43 (#27) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.48 (#94) | 3.53 (#29) |
| RPI | 0.533 (#110) | 0.648 (#12) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AUB | ALA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 42.2% |
| 3PT% | 34.3% | 32.3% |
| REB / G | 38.4 | 41.3 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 13.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.3% | 49.6% |
| TOV% | 23.5% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 34.8% | 32.8% |
| FT Rate | 21.8% | 22.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.6% | 46.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.0% | 20.7% |
| DRB% | 71.7% | 70.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.9% | 19.6% |
Game Analysis
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