Betting Lines
| Spread | USU -15.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | UNM +900 USU -1600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USU +36 | 128 | Lost |
| Massey | USU -15.7 (-20.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.2 (-3.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 21% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USU -13.1 (-22.9) | 133.7 (-5.7) | 14% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USU -14.5 (-21.5) | 132.7 (-4.7) | 14% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USU -17.5 (-18.5) | 134.0 (-6.0) | 13% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USU -16.0 (-20.0) | 136.1 (-8.1) | 12% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | USU 94 – 90 UNM |
| Feb 5, 2026 | USU 86 – 66 UNM |
| Feb 16, 2025 | UNM 82 – 79 USU |
| Feb 2, 2025 | UNM 82 – 63 USU |
| Mar 10, 2024 | USU 87 – 85 UNM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNM | USU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6-16 | 20-9 |
| Conference | 2-15 | 15-4 |
| Home | 1-4 | 10-2 |
| Away | 3-8 | 7-3 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L3 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 62.1 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.8 | 62.3 |
| Massey | -10.1 (#307) | 8.8 (#60) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.00 (#244) | 0.91 (#103) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.52 (#251) | 0.77 (#126) |
| RPI | 0.514 (#142) | 0.515 (#140) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNM | USU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 35.8% | 45.6% |
| 3PT% | 27.3% | 33.0% |
| REB / G | 34.3 | 41.3 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 12.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.65 | 1.18 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 39.7% | 50.9% |
| TOV% | 21.3% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 33.1% | 35.2% |
| FT Rate | 23.2% | 21.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.8% | 45.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 21.9% |
| DRB% | 69.9% | 79.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.4% | 19.5% |
Game Analysis
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