Betting Lines
| Spread | RICH -5.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.0 Under |
| Money | GMU +195 RICH -230 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | RICH +20 | 134 | Lost |
| Massey | RICH -5.6 (-14.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.1 (-13.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 26% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 8% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | RICH -4.0 (-16.0) | 144.8 (-10.8) | 32% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | RICH -3.1 (-16.9) | 141.0 (-7.0) | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | RICH -4.2 (-15.8) | 145.6 (-11.6) | 36% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | RICH -3.7 (-16.3) | 145.0 (-11.0) | 37% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 11, 2026 | RICH 82 – 70 GMU |
| Mar 8, 2025 | GMU 64 – 60 RICH |
| Jan 9, 2025 | GMU 64 – 58 RICH |
| Mar 9, 2024 | GMU 64 – 46 RICH |
| Jan 13, 2024 | RICH 77 – 70 GMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GMU | RICH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-9 | 14-9 |
| Conference | 8-6 | 6-5 |
| Home | 7-3 | 6-4 |
| Away | 3-4 | 5-3 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.3 | 74.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.9 | 69.9 |
| Massey | -1.4 (#189) | 7.4 (#74) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.04 (#167) | 1.67 (#68) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.56 (#201) | 2.41 (#62) |
| RPI | 0.509 (#151) | 0.591 (#52) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GMU | RICH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.8% | 49.2% |
| 3PT% | 32.1% | 34.5% |
| REB / G | 36.4 | 29.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 6.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 1.35 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.3% | 55.3% |
| TOV% | 19.5% | 15.5% |
| ORB% | 29.7% | 19.9% |
| FT Rate | 19.8% | 20.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.6% | 52.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.1% | 21.1% |
| DRB% | 73.6% | 70.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.4% | 17.7% |
Game Analysis
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