Betting Lines
| Spread | UNT -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | UTSA +210 UNT -250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTSA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTSA +8 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | UNT -14.1 (+22.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.4 (+4.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 29% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 17% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNT -9.0 (+17.0) | 138.9 (+7.1) | 20% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNT -7.4 (+15.4) | 138.7 (+7.3) | 23% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNT -8.1 (+16.1) | 140.1 (+5.9) | 22% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UNT -8.3 (+16.3) | 138.1 (+7.9) | 19% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | UNT 81 – 58 UTSA |
| Jan 22, 2026 | UNT 81 – 62 UTSA |
| Feb 1, 2025 | UTSA 54 – 50 UNT |
| Jan 18, 2025 | UNT 72 – 57 UTSA |
| Feb 24, 2024 | UTSA 64 – 62 UNT |
Game Analysis
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