Betting Lines
| Spread | IDST -1.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 133.0 Over |
| Money | NAU +100 IDST -120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NAU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IDST +6 | 146 | Lost |
| Massey | IDST -2.2 (-3.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.3 (+13.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 42% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IDST -0.9 (-5.1) | 134.7 (+11.3) | 42% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IDST -1.9 (-4.1) | 130.9 (+15.1) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IDST -1.2 (-4.8) | 133.5 (+12.5) | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | IDST -1.6 (-4.4) | 136.5 (+9.5) | 43% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | IDST 73 – 65 NAU |
| Feb 6, 2026 | NAU 79 – 73 IDST |
| Jan 11, 2026 | IDST 81 – 79 NAU |
| Mar 4, 2025 | NAU 82 – 79 IDST |
| Jan 3, 2025 | IDST 72 – 67 NAU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NAU | IDST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6-16 | 13-11 |
| Conference | 4-10 | 8-6 |
| Home | 1-7 | 8-3 |
| Away | 4-7 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.2 | 61.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.5 | 64.5 |
| Massey | -11.7 (#318) | -6.4 (#268) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.29 (#318) | -1.41 (#269) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.54 (#321) | -2.19 (#281) |
| RPI | 0.435 (#253) | 0.390 (#303) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NAU | IDST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.6% | 42.2% |
| 3PT% | 31.5% | 30.0% |
| REB / G | 28.9 | 34.6 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 0.57 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.2% | 47.8% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 28.2% |
| ORB% | 23.4% | 32.6% |
| FT Rate | 23.7% | 28.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 60.7% | 50.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 72.1% | 77.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.5% | 22.9% |
Game Analysis
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