Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCO -3.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | UNCO -150 MTST +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MTST +2 | 150 | Lost |
| Massey | MTST -2.3 (+0.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.2 (+9.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 30% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 15% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MTST -0.9 (-1.1) | 137.7 (+12.3) | 46% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MTST -0.3 (-1.7) | 139.4 (+10.6) | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MTST -1.1 (-0.9) | 141.2 (+8.8) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MTST -1.2 (-0.8) | 138.6 (+11.4) | 48% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 20, 2026 | MTST 73 – 68 UNCO |
| Jan 2, 2026 | MTST 89 – 75 UNCO |
| Mar 12, 2025 | UNCO 72 – 45 MTST |
| Feb 9, 2025 | UNCO 73 – 66 MTST |
| Jan 10, 2025 | UNCO 83 – 82 MTST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCO | MTST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-11 | 13-10 |
| Conference | 6-8 | 8-6 |
| Home | 6-5 | 5-3 |
| Away | 4-5 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.0 | 71.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 72.1 |
| Massey | -6.7 (#275) | -1.3 (#185) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.46 (#271) | -0.06 (#178) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.46 (#294) | -0.17 (#179) |
| RPI | 0.389 (#304) | 0.506 (#158) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCO | MTST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.4% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 36.4% |
| REB / G | 30.6 | 30.2 |
| OREB / G | 7.6 | 6.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.55 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.9% | 49.3% |
| TOV% | 23.2% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 22.9% | 18.2% |
| FT Rate | 22.9% | 24.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.5% | 46.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.3% | 20.3% |
| DRB% | 74.2% | 67.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.3% | 31.2% |
Game Analysis
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