Betting Lines
| Spread | MSST -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | VAN +145 MSST -165 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSST +3 | 165 | Lost |
| Massey | MSST -3.7 (+0.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.0 (+23.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 29% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 13% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSST -3.0 (+0.0) | 144.2 (+20.8) | 40% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSST -2.4 (-0.6) | 138.9 (+26.1) | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSST -3.2 (+0.2) | 141.5 (+23.5) | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MSST -3.1 (+0.1) | 144.7 (+20.3) | 34% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | VAN 88 – 56 MSST |
| Jan 8, 2025 | MSST 76 – 64 VAN |
| Jan 20, 2024 | MSST 68 – 55 VAN |
| Mar 5, 2023 | VAN 77 – 72 MSST |
| Feb 26, 2022 | MSST 74 – 69 VAN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VAN | MSST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-16 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 3-13 | 8-10 |
| Home | 6-7 | 9-6 |
| Away | 2-8 | 5-4 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 4-5 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.8 | 69.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.4 | 66.8 |
| Massey | -0.6 (#174) | 6.3 (#86) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.60 (#220) | 0.86 (#107) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.56 (#202) | 1.93 (#78) |
| RPI | 0.415 (#270) | 0.524 (#131) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VAN | MSST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 33.8% | 38.3% |
| REB / G | 37.9 | 41.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.9 | 14.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.9% | 51.1% |
| TOV% | 19.6% | 19.5% |
| ORB% | 32.9% | 39.1% |
| FT Rate | 21.0% | 22.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.5% | 47.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 74.0% | 74.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.9% | 17.7% |
Game Analysis
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