Betting Lines
| Spread | GRAM -2.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GRAM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SOU +6 | 116 | Lost |
| Massey | GRAM -6.9 (-12.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.9 (-20.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 69% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GRAM -4.7 (-10.7) | 137.6 (-21.6) | 70% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GRAM -3.9 (-9.9) | 134.7 (-18.7) | 57% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GRAM -3.6 (-9.6) | 137.5 (-21.5) | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | GRAM -4.4 (-10.4) | 139.0 (-23.0) | 66% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | SOU 87 – 73 GRAM |
| Jan 17, 2026 | SOU 71 – 53 GRAM |
| Mar 12, 2025 | GRAM 65 – 62 SOU |
| Feb 22, 2025 | SOU 71 – 64 GRAM |
| Jan 18, 2025 | SOU 67 – 60 GRAM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GRAM | SOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-12 | 8-11 |
| Conference | 9-6 | 8-6 |
| Home | 6-4 | 5-2 |
| Away | 5-7 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.3 | 69.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.1 | 70.3 |
| Massey | -7.1 (#280) | -10.9 (#312) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.80 (#292) | -2.04 (#308) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.90 (#307) | -2.97 (#310) |
| RPI | 0.434 (#254) | 0.414 (#272) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GRAM | SOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.1% | 35.4% |
| 3PT% | 32.5% | 22.2% |
| REB / G | 33.0 | 40.0 |
| OREB / G | 7.7 | 12.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.71 | 0.65 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.2% | 38.5% |
| TOV% | 24.7% | 22.6% |
| ORB% | 23.5% | 29.8% |
| FT Rate | 23.8% | 17.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.3% | 57.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 15.1% |
| DRB% | 62.5% | 77.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.9% | 28.5% |
Game Analysis
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