Betting Lines
| Spread | WIN -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 158.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WIN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WIN +10 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | WIN -13.2 (-3.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 162.3 (-22.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WIN -12.1 (-2.1) | 154.5 (-14.5) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WIN -10.9 (-0.9) | 148.9 (-8.9) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WIN -12.4 (-2.4) | 155.0 (-15.0) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WIN -11.8 (-1.8) | 155.3 (-15.3) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 13, 2026 | WIN 103 – 85 GWEB |
| Jan 3, 2026 | WIN 88 – 77 GWEB |
| Feb 1, 2025 | WIN 96 – 93 GWEB |
| Jan 9, 2025 | GWEB 89 – 83 WIN |
| Mar 2, 2024 | GWEB 65 – 64 WIN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WIN | GWEB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-2 | 11-15 |
| Conference | 17-1 | 10-10 |
| Home | 11-1 | 7-4 |
| Away | 10-0 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.9 | 70.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.0 | 68.4 |
| Massey | 8.4 (#64) | -1.6 (#194) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.98 (#19) | -1.00 (#245) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.02 (#20) | -1.64 (#258) |
| RPI | 0.620 (#26) | 0.467 (#212) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WIN | GWEB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.2% | 42.2% |
| 3PT% | 36.9% | 34.7% |
| REB / G | 41.2 | 35.6 |
| OREB / G | 14.1 | 8.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 1.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.4% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 19.7% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 37.0% | 23.0% |
| FT Rate | 24.9% | 21.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.3% | 49.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.9% | 16.1% |
| DRB% | 80.0% | 72.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.4% | 24.3% |
Game Analysis
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