Betting Lines
| Spread | MOST -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.0 Over |
| Money | VAL +150 MOST -170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VAL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MOST +13 | 149 | Lost |
| Massey | MOST -3.4 (-9.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.3 (+5.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 16% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 13% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MOST -3.3 (-9.7) | 142.9 (+6.1) | 39% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MOST -1.9 (-11.1) | 143.9 (+5.1) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MOST -2.9 (-10.1) | 145.9 (+3.1) | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MOST -3.0 (-10.0) | 144.3 (+4.7) | 35% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2025 | VAL 66 – 64 MOST |
| Jan 2, 2025 | VAL 73 – 72 MOST |
| Feb 17, 2024 | MOST 82 – 74 VAL |
| Jan 27, 2024 | MOST 81 – 70 VAL |
| Feb 2, 2023 | MOST 76 – 67 VAL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VAL | MOST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-18 | 17-7 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 12-6 |
| Home | 6-6 | 9-4 |
| Away | 4-11 | 7-2 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.3 | 72.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.7 | 67.3 |
| Massey | -0.7 (#175) | 5.9 (#91) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.63 (#283) | 0.63 (#126) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.84 (#270) | 0.62 (#139) |
| RPI | 0.403 (#279) | 0.498 (#169) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VAL | MOST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.3% | 49.1% |
| 3PT% | 26.2% | 35.4% |
| REB / G | 33.2 | 36.5 |
| OREB / G | 7.5 | 7.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 1.13 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.8% | 57.7% |
| TOV% | 19.6% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 21.5% | 22.3% |
| FT Rate | 19.7% | 29.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.5% | 47.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.5% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 71.0% | 74.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.9% | 22.0% |
Game Analysis
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