Betting Lines
| Spread | BUF -6.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.0 Over |
| Money | BUF -260 BALL +220 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BUF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BUF +17 | 155 | Won |
| Massey | BUF -10.9 (+6.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.8 (-3.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BUF -9.3 (+7.7) | 154.6 (+0.4) | 82% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BUF -7.7 (+9.3) | 151.2 (+3.8) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BUF -8.1 (+8.9) | 155.1 (-0.1) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BUF -9.9 (+7.1) | 155.4 (-0.4) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 12, 2026 | BUF 63 – 53 BALL |
| Jan 3, 2026 | BUF 85 – 72 BALL |
| Feb 22, 2025 | BALL 80 – 66 BUF |
| Feb 1, 2025 | BALL 89 – 76 BUF |
| Jan 24, 2024 | BALL 87 – 59 BUF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BUF | BALL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-9 | 10-13 |
| Conference | 12-5 | 8-9 |
| Home | 8-3 | 7-4 |
| Away | 5-3 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.4 | 74.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.9 | 75.5 |
| Massey | 6.5 (#84) | -1.2 (#183) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.32 (#147) | -0.64 (#223) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.44 (#151) | -0.76 (#215) |
| RPI | 0.545 (#100) | 0.484 (#187) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BUF | BALL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.6% | 42.9% |
| 3PT% | 33.1% | 31.1% |
| REB / G | 43.3 | 34.4 |
| OREB / G | 12.8 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.11 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.6% | 49.0% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 33.0% | 26.5% |
| FT Rate | 18.9% | 23.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.4% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.1% | 20.1% |
| DRB% | 74.7% | 70.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.4% | 22.1% |
Game Analysis
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