Betting Lines
| Spread | CSU -7.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.0 Over |
| Money | CSU -340 UNLV +280 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CSU +3 | 163 | Won |
| Massey | CSU -12.9 (-9.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.0 (+21.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CSU -11.6 (-8.6) | 142.8 (+20.2) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CSU -8.4 (-5.4) | 145.4 (+17.6) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CSU -11.4 (-8.4) | 144.5 (+18.5) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CSU -12.1 (-9.1) | 142.6 (+20.4) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | CSU 91 – 86 UNLV |
| Jan 10, 2026 | CSU 70 – 62 UNLV |
| Feb 23, 2025 | CSU 61 – 53 UNLV |
| Jan 11, 2025 | CSU 84 – 62 UNLV |
| Feb 25, 2024 | UNLV 66 – 60 CSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CSU | UNLV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-8 | 12-15 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 8-10 |
| Home | 10-1 | 8-4 |
| Away | 6-4 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.4 | 67.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.4 | 69.7 |
| Massey | 8.4 (#65) | -1.4 (#186) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.20 (#40) | -0.71 (#225) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.43 (#61) | -0.73 (#214) |
| RPI | 0.636 (#17) | 0.473 (#203) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CSU | UNLV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 41.6% |
| 3PT% | 37.8% | 34.6% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 33.5 |
| OREB / G | 5.8 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.5% | 50.1% |
| TOV% | 19.6% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 17.7% | 24.4% |
| FT Rate | 27.2% | 14.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.5% | 53.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.0% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 75.8% | 73.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 11.0% | 30.7% |
Game Analysis
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