Lights going out, and a kick in the balls. "That's Entertainment" - The Jam
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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72–35 on winners spread MAE 9.1 107 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
High Point @ Gardner-Webb +8.1 141.9 80% 59–55 ✗
Cal State Northridge @ Cal Poly -2.6 143.6 38% 70–76 ✗
Green Bay @ Cleveland State +5.3 139.5 73% 68–74 ✓
Stetson @ Florida Gulf Coast +1.1 135.3 55% 63–64 ✓
North Alabama @ North Florida -0.5 140.3 47% 82–78 ✓
Liberty @ Jacksonville -11.8 136.1 15% 59–54 ✓
App State @ Troy -2.0 135.7 40% 62–71 ✗
Ohio @ Buffalo +5.0 157.7 70% 76–75 ✗
UC Santa Barbara @ UC Davis -9.7 146.4 19% 72–51 ✓
Charleston Southern @ Campbell +10.6 137.3 87% 58–59 ✓
Oakland @ Purdue Fort Wayne +3.6 157.8 67% 81–66 ✗
UL Monroe @ Little Rock +11.4 138.8 86% 62–66 ✓
Northern Colorado @ Northern Arizona -2.4 137.0 37% 64–68 ✗
Manhattan @ Saint Peter's +9.7 127.2 83% 55–59 ✓
North Dakota State @ Kansas City -1.2 125.6 42% 71–67 ✓
Omaha @ South Dakota +11.6 142.3 87% 59–91 ✓
Tarleton State @ Utah Valley +5.8 148.6 74% 60–73 ✓
Western Illinois @ North Dakota +4.3 140.9 65% 81–83 ✓
Coastal Carolina @ Georgia Southern -3.0 142.1 36% 79–62 ✓
UT Arlington @ Arkansas State -2.3 143.1 36% 75–83 ✗
Iowa @ Illinois +3.2 164.4 64% 75–80 ✓
Robert Morris @ Wright State +17.2 147.9 91% 70–79 ✓
New Mexico State @ Grand Canyon +10.6 133.0 85% 62–70 ✓
Utah Tech @ California Baptist +10.8 148.9 86% 74–89 ✓
Boise State @ Colorado State +2.0 144.4 60% 85–77 ✗
Cal State Fullerton @ Cal State Bakersfield +9.4 132.8 83% 90–84 ✗
UC Irvine @ Hawai'i -0.4 139.7 46% 53–51 ✓
Alabama @ Oklahoma +2.5 148.1 58% 61–66 ✓
Tulsa @ East Carolina -0.2 129.1 51% 77–68 ✓
Clemson @ Duke +0.7 132.9 52% 53–79 ✓
Loyola Maryland @ Navy +7.9 142.1 78% 52–70 ✓
Texas A&M @ Kansas State -1.8 129.9 42% 68–61 ✓
Providence @ Georgetown -3.3 143.5 39% 72–73 ✗
Siena @ Marist -3.4 130.5 30% 54–55 ✗
La Salle @ VCU +12.4 138.1 88% 62–73 ✓
Furman @ Western Carolina -7.3 156.3 22% 75–69 ✓
William & Mary @ Towson +2.5 141.2 63% 84–74 ✗
Hofstra @ UNC Wilmington +1.6 143.8 60% 82–73 ✗
Texas Tech @ LSU +1.4 152.9 55% 76–71 ✗
Florida @ West Virginia +5.1 146.7 70% 85–80 ✗
TCU @ Missouri +11.7 137.3 87% 98–102 ✓
Florida A&M @ North Carolina A&T -1.5 148.0 39% 58–70 ✗
George Mason @ St. Bonaventure +12.1 130.3 87% 67–84 ✓
New Hampshire @ Binghamton -7.4 139.9 23% 44–65 ✗
Hartford @ Stony Brook +0.5 131.4 50% 59–57 ✗
Sacred Heart @ Mount St. Mary's +6.1 131.2 76% 61–58 ✗
Miami @ Wake Forest +5.4 139.2 73% 54–66 ✓
Colgate @ Holy Cross -11.4 159.8 18% 74–63 ✓
Bucknell @ Lehigh +2.3 142.6 61% 84–70 ✗
Morehead State @ Tennessee Tech -7.9 132.2 19% 74–55 ✓
Western Michigan @ Miami (OH) +10.3 140.6 85% 56–65 ✓
Ball State @ Akron +6.5 148.2 78% 42–74 ✓
Elon @ Delaware +4.0 131.5 66% 43–66 ✓
Utah @ Colorado +12.2 140.1 87% 77–74 ✗
Wisconsin @ Penn State +1.2 140.5 54% 71–81 ✓
Southern Miss @ Louisiana Tech +11.2 134.5 87% 62–65 ✓
Morgan State @ Coppin State -3.4 159.2 38% 79–76 ✓
Abilene Christian @ Incarnate Word -14.0 132.0 13% 75–67 ✓
Milwaukee @ IU Indianapolis -1.1 144.2 47% 83–76 ✓
Weber State @ Idaho -15.1 144.0 13% 81–62 ✓
Villanova @ Seton Hall -2.2 146.9 38% 80–72 ✓
Auburn @ Baylor +17.9 157.3 89% 72–84 ✓
Florida State @ Georgia Tech -1.3 149.5 43% 65–76 ✗
Monmouth @ Niagara -3.4 142.1 33% 74–83 ✗
Northern Iowa @ Southern Illinois +2.5 144.0 66% 74–62 ✗
UCF @ Wichita State +5.0 137.1 70% 88–93 ✓
Long Island University @ St. Francis Brooklyn +0.8 146.2 56% 102–88 ✗
Rhode Island @ Dayton +1.3 135.9 57% 56–67 ✓
Longwood @ Presbyterian -3.2 122.9 35% 54–66 ✗
Bellarmine @ Kennesaw State -8.2 130.9 21% 84–79 ✓
Coastal Carolina @ Georgia Southern -2.8 141.3 36% 58–61 ✗
Florida International @ Charlotte +7.7 137.7 79% 65–68 ✓
Arkansas @ Oklahoma State +3.2 152.7 64% 77–81 ✓
Alabama A&M @ Prairie View A&M +2.3 139.9 59% 57–79 ✓
Mercer @ Wofford +3.8 146.5 71% 69–72 ✓
The Citadel @ East Tennessee State +8.9 152.1 80% 84–112 ✓
Central Michigan @ Kent State +16.3 157.6 90% 76–83 ✓
Delaware State @ Norfolk State +13.1 152.3 88% 66–94 ✓
Southern @ Alcorn State -3.8 141.7 36% 76–59 ✓
High Point @ Gardner-Webb +7.9 140.0 79% 72–69 ✗
California @ Arizona +12.2 143.1 88% 50–71 ✓
LSU New Orleans @ SE Louisiana +0.8 143.7 53% 73–79 ✓
Robert Morris @ Wright State +17.3 147.8 91% 56–86 ✓
UIC @ Northern Kentucky +2.0 136.7 60% 67–69 ✓
Detroit Mercy @ Youngstown State -0.7 149.2 48% 77–72 ✓
SIU Edwardsville @ UT Martin -3.7 142.6 33% 76–60 ✓
Tennessee State @ Austin Peay +5.9 138.3 72% 56–71 ✓
North Alabama @ North Florida -0.2 142.0 47% 72–82 ✗
Northwestern State @ Central Arkansas +2.5 155.3 61% 81–77 ✗
UT Arlington @ Arkansas State -1.3 145.0 38% 65–64 ✓
UL Monroe @ Little Rock +11.3 137.8 86% 49–65 ✓
Louisiana @ Texas State +3.3 130.7 65% 74–73 ✗
App State @ Troy -1.6 133.1 42% 59–65 ✗
Toledo @ Bowling Green -2.1 158.3 39% 84–66 ✓
Charleston Southern @ Campbell +10.1 136.0 86% 67–75 ✓
Xavier @ Butler -3.9 133.1 31% 68–55 ✓
McNeese @ Lamar +5.7 148.1 72% 56–64 ✓
Virginia @ Virginia Tech -1.3 129.3 45% 51–65 ✗
Kansas @ Tennessee +5.6 128.4 68% 61–80 ✓
Air Force @ San José State -1.4 139.0 42% 62–75 ✗
Ole Miss @ Georgia -1.3 139.3 45% 61–71 ✗
Eastern Illinois @ Southeast Missouri State +2.1 140.1 61% 44–75 ✓
Liberty @ Jacksonville -11.3 134.9 15% 64–58 ✓
Pacific @ BYU +11.9 135.7 87% 87–95 ✓
Iowa State @ Mississippi State +10.3 137.5 83% 56–95 ✓
Mississippi Valley State @ Jackson State +19.8 139.2 90% 56–106 ✓
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Grambling +11.0 135.4 86% 71–74 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.