Betting Lines
| Spread | SOU -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | ALCN +163 SOU -150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALCN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SOU +17 | 135 | Lost |
| Massey | SOU -4.9 (-12.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.6 (-9.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 61% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SOU -3.8 (-13.2) | 141.7 (-6.7) | 36% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SOU -2.6 (-14.4) | 140.4 (-5.4) | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SOU -4.7 (-12.3) | 144.5 (-9.5) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SOU -3.3 (-13.7) | 142.8 (-7.8) | 27% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | ALCN 78 – 73 SOU |
| Feb 1, 2025 | SOU 74 – 69 ALCN |
| Feb 3, 2024 | SOU 71 – 70 ALCN |
| Jan 28, 2023 | SOU 80 – 68 ALCN |
| Jan 29, 2022 | ALCN 68 – 64 SOU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALCN | SOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6-13 | 8-11 |
| Conference | 6-7 | 8-6 |
| Home | 4-3 | 5-2 |
| Away | 2-9 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L4 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.1 | 69.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.6 | 70.3 |
| Massey | -14.9 (#337) | -7.4 (#280) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.54 (#292) | -1.54 (#293) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.59 (#310) | -2.12 (#294) |
| RPI | 0.466 (#218) | 0.440 (#261) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALCN | SOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.0% | 42.2% |
| 3PT% | 29.6% | 32.9% |
| REB / G | 31.7 | 38.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.51 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.2% | 46.9% |
| TOV% | 21.3% | 21.9% |
| ORB% | 30.2% | 29.3% |
| FT Rate | 25.6% | 25.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.5% | 48.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.8% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 63.7% | 75.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 35.2% | 27.8% |
Game Analysis
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