Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCO -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Under |
| Money | NAU +180 UNCO -220 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NAU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NAU +4 | 132 | Won |
| Massey | UNCO -3.7 (+7.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.7 (-5.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 37% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 37% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCO -2.4 (+6.4) | 137.0 (-5.0) | 37% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCO -2.5 (+6.5) | 132.3 (-0.3) | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCO -2.1 (+6.1) | 134.7 (-2.7) | 39% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UNCO -2.6 (+6.6) | 137.8 (-5.8) | 35% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 22, 2026 | UNCO 78 – 77 NAU |
| Jan 25, 2026 | NAU 81 – 77 UNCO |
| Mar 2, 2025 | UNCO 83 – 73 NAU |
| Feb 1, 2025 | UNCO 87 – 69 NAU |
| Mar 5, 2024 | UNCO 82 – 74 NAU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NAU | UNCO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6-16 | 11-11 |
| Conference | 4-10 | 6-8 |
| Home | 1-7 | 6-5 |
| Away | 4-7 | 4-5 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.2 | 68.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.5 | 70.5 |
| Massey | -11.3 (#323) | -5.0 (#244) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.35 (#322) | -1.36 (#278) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.19 (#323) | -2.15 (#296) |
| RPI | 0.439 (#265) | 0.433 (#275) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NAU | UNCO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.5% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 31.7% | 36.9% |
| REB / G | 29.3 | 31.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 7.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.87 | 0.66 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.6% | 50.8% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 20.7% |
| ORB% | 26.0% | 22.8% |
| FT Rate | 22.1% | 21.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 59.6% | 48.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 72.8% | 74.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.2% | 25.3% |
Game Analysis
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