Betting Lines
| Spread | HOF -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | UNCW +130 HOF -120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOF +9 | 155 | Lost |
| Massey | UNCW -1.7 (-10.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.9 (+7.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 37% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCW -1.6 (-10.6) | 143.8 (+11.2) | 60% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCW -0.8 (-9.8) | 143.7 (+11.3) | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCW -1.6 (-10.6) | 146.4 (+8.6) | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UNCW -1.8 (-10.8) | 144.2 (+10.8) | 58% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | UNCW 70 – 66 HOF |
| Jan 11, 2025 | HOF 66 – 63 UNCW |
| Mar 1, 2024 | HOF 69 – 58 UNCW |
| Mar 6, 2023 | UNCW 79 – 73 HOF |
| Jan 20, 2023 | HOF 70 – 46 UNCW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCW | HOF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-10 | 13-10 |
| Conference | 1-6 | 8-6 |
| Home | 3-4 | 7-3 |
| Away | 3-4 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.8 | 73.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.2 | 73.0 |
| Massey | -1.4 (#190) | -0.6 (#172) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.49 (#201) | 0.50 (#138) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.50 (#202) | 0.16 (#164) |
| RPI | 0.450 (#245) | 0.547 (#93) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCW | HOF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.9% | 43.0% |
| 3PT% | 33.5% | 30.7% |
| REB / G | 32.2 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.83 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.0% | 49.0% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 27.1% | 28.4% |
| FT Rate | 32.4% | 24.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.1% | 49.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.6% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 68.6% | 71.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.2% | 17.6% |
Game Analysis
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