Betting Lines
| Spread | ILL -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 161.5 Under |
| Money | ILL -138 IOWA +150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILL +5 | 155 | Won |
| Massey | ILL -1.8 (+3.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 168.8 (-13.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 46% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILL -3.2 (+1.8) | 164.4 (-9.4) | 64% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILL -0.9 (+4.1) | 159.8 (-4.8) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILL -2.2 (+2.8) | 166.4 (-11.4) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ILL -3.5 (+1.5) | 169.0 (-14.0) | 68% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 28, 2026 | ILL 71 – 59 IOWA |
| Jan 11, 2026 | ILL 75 – 69 IOWA |
| Mar 13, 2025 | ILL 106 – 94 IOWA |
| Feb 26, 2025 | ILL 81 – 61 IOWA |
| Mar 10, 2024 | ILL 73 – 61 IOWA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ILL | IOWA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-7 | 22-9 |
| Conference | 16-4 | 14-6 |
| Home | 11-2 | 14-2 |
| Away | 9-3 | 6-4 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.5 | 83.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.6 | 72.7 |
| Massey | 19.8 (#4) | 20.5 (#3) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.56 (#25) | 3.19 (#9) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.09 (#11) | 4.41 (#9) |
| RPI | 0.585 (#45) | 0.583 (#48) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ILL | IOWA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.9% | 48.7% |
| 3PT% | 39.7% | 38.4% |
| REB / G | 40.5 | 41.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 12.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.30 | 2.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.3% | 56.4% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 13.7% |
| ORB% | 33.3% | 34.3% |
| FT Rate | 25.6% | 26.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.4% | 48.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.2% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 77.8% | 69.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.4% | 15.6% |
Game Analysis
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