Betting Lines
| Spread | GWEB -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | GWEB -300 HPU +320 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GWEB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HPU +4 | 114 | Lost |
| Massey | GWEB -9.0 (-13.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.5 (-28.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 85% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GWEB -8.1 (-12.1) | 141.9 (-27.9) | 80% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GWEB -7.4 (-11.4) | 139.5 (-25.5) | 74% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GWEB -8.1 (-12.1) | 140.5 (-26.5) | 73% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | GWEB -7.9 (-11.9) | 141.5 (-27.5) | 75% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | HPU 81 – 59 GWEB |
| Feb 14, 2026 | HPU 112 – 87 GWEB |
| Jan 8, 2026 | HPU 104 – 49 GWEB |
| Mar 7, 2025 | HPU 85 – 64 GWEB |
| Feb 22, 2025 | HPU 90 – 67 GWEB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GWEB | HPU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-15 | 9-15 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 6-11 |
| Home | 7-4 | 5-5 |
| Away | 4-11 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.7 | 66.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.4 | 69.9 |
| Massey | -0.4 (#168) | -6.8 (#275) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.05 (#255) | -2.13 (#316) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.27 (#251) | -2.47 (#306) |
| RPI | 0.493 (#173) | 0.395 (#315) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GWEB | HPU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 44.5% |
| 3PT% | 36.7% | 32.3% |
| REB / G | 35.6 | 32.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 8.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.19 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.8% | 49.6% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 20.5% |
| ORB% | 25.5% | 27.7% |
| FT Rate | 20.3% | 28.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.5% | 52.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 20.1% |
| DRB% | 73.8% | 71.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.2% | 23.6% |
Game Analysis
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