Betting Lines
| Spread | LONG -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 123.5 Under |
| Money | PRES +150 LONG -138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PRES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PRES +12 | 120 | Won |
| Massey | LONG -3.9 (+15.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 118.0 (+2.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 47% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 39% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LONG -3.2 (+15.2) | 122.9 (-2.9) | 35% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LONG -2.3 (+14.3) | 120.5 (-0.5) | 36% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LONG -2.8 (+14.8) | 124.5 (-4.5) | 37% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | LONG -2.7 (+14.7) | 124.1 (-4.1) | 38% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | PRES 72 – 65 LONG |
| Jan 10, 2026 | LONG 77 – 70 PRES |
| Feb 15, 2025 | PRES 77 – 68 LONG |
| Jan 2, 2025 | PRES 68 – 60 LONG |
| Feb 17, 2024 | LONG 81 – 73 PRES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PRES | LONG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-15 | 12-17 |
| Conference | 5-12 | 10-10 |
| Home | 5-6 | 8-5 |
| Away | 2-9 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.1 | 66.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.1 | 67.8 |
| Massey | -10.8 (#315) | -4.4 (#235) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.37 (#323) | -1.78 (#303) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.92 (#315) | -1.98 (#286) |
| RPI | 0.374 (#329) | 0.419 (#291) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PRES | LONG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.8% | 44.5% |
| 3PT% | 33.2% | 32.8% |
| REB / G | 31.8 | 31.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.62 | 0.77 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.6% | 50.7% |
| TOV% | 24.6% | 20.4% |
| ORB% | 30.6% | 25.8% |
| FT Rate | 23.8% | 20.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.8% | 52.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.8% | 20.3% |
| DRB% | 69.8% | 74.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.1% | 25.6% |
Game Analysis
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