Betting Lines
| Spread | BTLR -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Under |
| Money | BTLR -110 XAV +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BTLR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | XAV +13 | 123 | Lost |
| Massey | XAV -6.1 (-6.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.9 (-8.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 18% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | XAV -3.9 (-9.1) | 133.1 (-10.1) | 31% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | XAV -3.6 (-9.4) | 133.7 (-10.7) | 31% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | XAV -3.2 (-9.8) | 135.6 (-12.6) | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | XAV -3.0 (-10.0) | 134.2 (-11.2) | 30% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | BTLR 80 – 75 XAV |
| Jan 14, 2026 | XAV 89 – 75 BTLR |
| Mar 6, 2025 | XAV 91 – 78 BTLR |
| Feb 19, 2025 | XAV 76 – 63 BTLR |
| Mar 13, 2024 | XAV 76 – 72 BTLR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BTLR | XAV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-15 | 13-8 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 6-7 |
| Home | 8-4 | 11-2 |
| Away | 1-9 | 2-5 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.5 | 74.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.7 | 70.2 |
| Massey | 2.8 (#122) | 11.4 (#43) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.73 (#122) | 2.69 (#22) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.30 (#99) | 3.18 (#32) |
| RPI | 0.488 (#181) | 0.613 (#24) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BTLR | XAV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.9% | 47.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.6% | 35.4% |
| REB / G | 32.9 | 39.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 1.57 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.4% | 54.2% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 24.5% | 27.8% |
| FT Rate | 17.5% | 19.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.6% | 46.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 78.9% | 73.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.5% | 16.8% |
Game Analysis
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