Betting Lines
| Spread | BAY -14.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Over |
| Money | BAY -1400 AUB +1000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BAY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BAY +12 | 156 | Won |
| Massey | BAY -17.7 (-5.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.7 (-0.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BAY -14.6 (-2.6) | 154.8 (+1.2) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BAY -17.9 (-5.9) | 157.3 (-1.3) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BAY -18.0 (-6.0) | 158.0 (-2.0) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BAY -20.4 (-8.4) | 156.5 (-0.5) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 8, 2023 | BAY 88 – 82 AUB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BAY | AUB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-2 | 13-14 |
| Conference | 13-1 | 7-11 |
| Home | 11-0 | 8-5 |
| Away | 7-1 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 10-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | W6 | W1 |
| Avg Pts For | 82.9 | 77.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.5 | 76.4 |
| Massey | 24.9 (#1) | 9.8 (#56) |
| Bradley-Terry | 5.25 (#2) | 1.58 (#69) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 7.21 (#2) | 2.27 (#66) |
| RPI | 0.651 (#6) | 0.554 (#85) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BAY | AUB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.8% | 45.3% |
| 3PT% | 44.0% | 33.5% |
| REB / G | 37.9 | 39.3 |
| OREB / G | 12.9 | 12.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.48 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 59.2% | 53.1% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 22.3% |
| ORB% | 38.5% | 33.9% |
| FT Rate | 20.1% | 26.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.0% | 48.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 26.5% | 19.6% |
| DRB% | 70.9% | 70.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.0% | 23.0% |
Game Analysis
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