Betting Lines
| Spread | PROV -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | GTWN +188 PROV -175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GTWN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GTWN +1 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | PROV -2.8 (+3.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.8 (+0.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 22% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 19% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PROV -3.3 (+4.3) | 143.5 (+1.5) | 39% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PROV -1.5 (+2.5) | 142.5 (+2.5) | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PROV -4.3 (+5.3) | 144.1 (+0.9) | 39% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | PROV -3.3 (+4.3) | 143.3 (+1.7) | 44% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | GTWN 80 – 79 PROV |
| Jan 24, 2026 | GTWN 81 – 78 PROV |
| Feb 20, 2025 | GTWN 93 – 72 PROV |
| Jan 25, 2025 | PROV 78 – 68 GTWN |
| Mar 13, 2024 | PROV 74 – 56 GTWN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GTWN | PROV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-13 | 13-13 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 9-10 |
| Home | 7-6 | 8-3 |
| Away | 2-6 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.4 | 69.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.7 | 69.7 |
| Massey | 2.9 (#121) | 8.2 (#70) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.16 (#162) | 1.88 (#52) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.46 (#145) | 2.41 (#59) |
| RPI | 0.490 (#178) | 0.568 (#66) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GTWN | PROV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.9% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 35.4% | 32.1% |
| REB / G | 42.5 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.85 | 1.21 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.0% | 49.3% |
| TOV% | 21.6% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 30.3% | 30.5% |
| FT Rate | 17.0% | 24.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.5% | 49.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.8% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 74.3% | 71.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.8% | 21.5% |
Game Analysis
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