Betting Lines
| Spread | APP -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Under |
| Money | TROY +180 APP -163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TROY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TROY +6 | 124 | Won |
| Massey | APP -4.4 (+10.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 127.7 (-3.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 37% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 34% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | APP -1.6 (+7.6) | 133.1 (-9.1) | 42% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | APP -1.8 (+7.8) | 131.2 (-7.2) | 40% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | APP -1.7 (+7.7) | 133.5 (-9.5) | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | APP -1.8 (+7.8) | 134.8 (-10.8) | 41% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | APP 66 – 44 TROY |
| Jan 2, 2025 | TROY 69 – 61 APP |
| Jan 6, 2024 | TROY 66 – 62 APP |
| Jan 14, 2023 | APP 58 – 45 TROY |
| Feb 17, 2022 | TROY 67 – 61 APP |
Game Analysis
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