Betting Lines
| Spread | UNI -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | SIU +130 UNI -120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SIU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNI +12 | 136 | Lost |
| Massey | SIU -3.4 (-15.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.7 (-11.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 78% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SIU -2.5 (-14.5) | 144.0 (-8.0) | 66% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SIU -1.9 (-13.9) | 137.7 (-1.7) | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SIU -1.3 (-13.3) | 142.5 (-6.5) | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SIU -2.3 (-14.3) | 143.6 (-7.6) | 64% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | SIU 59 – 57 UNI |
| Jan 29, 2026 | SIU 65 – 50 UNI |
| Jan 19, 2025 | SIU 73 – 49 UNI |
| Dec 29, 2024 | UNI 78 – 67 SIU |
| Mar 3, 2024 | UNI 82 – 70 SIU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SIU | UNI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-14 | 10-15 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 7-11 |
| Home | 8-5 | 6-5 |
| Away | 3-8 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | W3 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.1 | 68.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.4 | 72.4 |
| Massey | -1.8 (#199) | -2.7 (#209) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.18 (#159) | -1.05 (#256) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.26 (#183) | -1.00 (#227) |
| RPI | 0.501 (#160) | 0.474 (#205) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SIU | UNI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 43.3% |
| 3PT% | 37.8% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 28.5 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 5.5 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 0.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.9% | 49.9% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 19.6% |
| ORB% | 17.9% | 24.6% |
| FT Rate | 25.6% | 17.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.4% | 54.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.7% | 15.0% |
| DRB% | 72.3% | 78.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.0% | 23.3% |
Game Analysis
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