Betting Lines
| Spread | AF -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | SJSU +200 AF -188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SJSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SJSU +13 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | AF -3.9 (+16.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.5 (-4.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 38% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 37% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AF -1.4 (+14.4) | 139.0 (-2.0) | 42% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AF -0.9 (+13.9) | 132.6 (+4.4) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AF -2.1 (+15.1) | 137.3 (-0.3) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AF -2.0 (+15.0) | 137.9 (-0.9) | 50% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 25, 2026 | SJSU 86 – 80 AF |
| Jan 14, 2026 | SJSU 70 – 62 AF |
| Feb 1, 2025 | SJSU 75 – 64 AF |
| Jan 11, 2025 | SJSU 69 – 62 AF |
| Feb 14, 2024 | SJSU 73 – 66 AF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SJSU | AF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5-16 | 5-20 |
| Conference | 3-13 | 3-17 |
| Home | 4-6 | 3-8 |
| Away | 0-8 | 1-10 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L5 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.9 | 58.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 82.4 | 71.9 |
| Massey | -17.5 (#343) | -11.0 (#317) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.67 (#297) | -0.73 (#230) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.26 (#299) | -1.23 (#246) |
| RPI | 0.392 (#318) | 0.450 (#246) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SJSU | AF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.1% | 46.1% |
| 3PT% | 29.9% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 32.9 | 24.1 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 4.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.62 | 0.77 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.8% | 53.4% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 24.2% |
| ORB% | 21.4% | 15.0% |
| FT Rate | 18.8% | 22.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.6% | 56.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.6% | 20.3% |
| DRB% | 64.9% | 64.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.8% | 18.9% |
Game Analysis
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