Betting Lines
| Spread | SELA -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | SELA -110 NOLA +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SELA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SELA +6 | 152 | Won |
| Massey | NOLA -0.1 (+6.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.5 (+8.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SELA -0.8 (+5.2) | 143.7 (+8.3) | 53% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SELA -2.3 (+3.7) | 142.5 (+9.5) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SELA -0.0 (+6.0) | 145.5 (+6.5) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SELA -1.4 (+4.6) | 145.6 (+6.4) | 45% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 3, 2026 | SELA 82 – 78 NOLA |
| Jan 13, 2026 | NOLA 79 – 76 SELA |
| Feb 1, 2025 | SELA 76 – 68 NOLA |
| Jan 11, 2025 | SELA 91 – 71 NOLA |
| Mar 10, 2024 | NOLA 78 – 66 SELA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SELA | NOLA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-18 | 10-15 |
| Conference | 5-10 | 8-7 |
| Home | 3-4 | 6-3 |
| Away | 4-13 | 2-10 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.3 | 76.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.7 | 77.2 |
| Massey | -12.3 (#327) | -9.6 (#306) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.92 (#309) | -3.14 (#337) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.09 (#318) | -4.42 (#336) |
| RPI | 0.429 (#282) | 0.351 (#336) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SELA | NOLA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.0% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 27.6% | 32.4% |
| REB / G | 34.9 | 33.6 |
| OREB / G | 12.7 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.61 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.8% | 49.5% |
| TOV% | 23.4% | 22.5% |
| ORB% | 32.5% | 29.7% |
| FT Rate | 28.3% | 19.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.9% | 54.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.1% | 22.0% |
| DRB% | 69.9% | 68.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.9% | 25.5% |
Game Analysis
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