Betting Lines
| Spread | TOL -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Under |
| Money | BGSU +163 TOL -150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BGSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOL +18 | 150 | Lost |
| Massey | TOL -2.5 (-15.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.0 (-10.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 29% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 12% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOL -2.1 (-15.9) | 158.3 (-8.3) | 39% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOL -1.5 (-16.5) | 155.0 (-5.0) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOL -2.6 (-15.4) | 159.1 (-9.1) | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TOL -1.7 (-16.3) | 158.2 (-8.2) | 43% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | TOL 77 – 76 BGSU |
| Feb 14, 2026 | BGSU 80 – 70 TOL |
| Jan 24, 2026 | TOL 73 – 72 BGSU |
| Feb 21, 2025 | BGSU 69 – 68 TOL |
| Jan 24, 2025 | TOL 84 – 71 BGSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BGSU | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-12 | 21-9 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 15-4 |
| Home | 4-7 | 12-1 |
| Away | 10-3 | 7-5 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L3 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.1 | 81.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.9 | 72.6 |
| Massey | 3.7 (#112) | 8.7 (#64) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.33 (#150) | 1.67 (#64) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.11 (#166) | 2.57 (#50) |
| RPI | 0.533 (#112) | 0.583 (#49) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BGSU | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.6% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 33.6% | 39.3% |
| REB / G | 37.8 | 37.1 |
| OREB / G | 12.1 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.18 | 1.49 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.8% | 54.1% |
| TOV% | 14.7% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 30.2% | 32.4% |
| FT Rate | 25.7% | 22.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.5% | 49.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.2% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 69.8% | 68.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.0% | 17.5% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.