Betting Lines
| Spread | WAKE -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | WAKE -138 MIA +150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WAKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WAKE +12 | 120 | Won |
| Massey | WAKE -7.7 (+4.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.4 (-15.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 52% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WAKE -5.4 (+6.6) | 139.2 (-19.2) | 73% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WAKE -4.9 (+7.1) | 138.3 (-18.3) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WAKE -6.0 (+6.0) | 138.9 (-18.9) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WAKE -5.5 (+6.5) | 139.5 (-19.5) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 8, 2026 | MIA 81 – 77 WAKE |
| Jan 11, 2025 | WAKE 88 – 78 MIA |
| Jan 6, 2024 | WAKE 86 – 82 MIA |
| Mar 9, 2023 | MIA 74 – 72 WAKE |
| Feb 18, 2023 | MIA 96 – 87 WAKE |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WAKE | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6-16 | 10-17 |
| Conference | 3-15 | 4-15 |
| Home | 5-6 | 7-8 |
| Away | 1-9 | 1-8 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L8 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.1 | 66.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.4 | 71.0 |
| Massey | 6.1 (#89) | 1.0 (#150) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.07 (#173) | 0.30 (#151) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.29 (#185) | 0.53 (#137) |
| RPI | 0.470 (#214) | 0.491 (#177) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WAKE | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.1% | 42.6% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 26.9% |
| REB / G | 32.1 | 36.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.79 | 0.83 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.2% | 47.3% |
| TOV% | 21.9% | 20.0% |
| ORB% | 28.4% | 27.9% |
| FT Rate | 23.8% | 23.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.8% | 50.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.4% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 73.8% | 73.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.1% | 14.8% |
Game Analysis
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