Betting Lines
| Spread | ETSU -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Over |
| Money | ETSU -700 CIT +550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ETSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ETSU +28 | 196 | Won |
| Massey | ETSU -8.6 (+19.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.6 (+39.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ETSU -8.9 (+19.1) | 152.1 (+43.9) | 80% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ETSU -6.9 (+21.1) | 156.4 (+39.6) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ETSU -8.3 (+19.7) | 153.9 (+42.1) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ETSU -9.3 (+18.7) | 151.9 (+44.1) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | ETSU 83 – 76 CIT |
| Jan 24, 2026 | ETSU 84 – 55 CIT |
| Dec 30, 2025 | ETSU 74 – 49 CIT |
| Mar 1, 2025 | ETSU 81 – 66 CIT |
| Jan 11, 2025 | ETSU 70 – 52 CIT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ETSU | CIT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-12 | 13-12 |
| Conference | 8-7 | 5-11 |
| Home | 8-4 | 11-3 |
| Away | 3-5 | 1-8 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.6 | 77.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.3 | 82.3 |
| Massey | 3.5 (#118) | -2.6 (#207) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.56 (#132) | 0.04 (#169) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.12 (#109) | -0.04 (#173) |
| RPI | 0.552 (#88) | 0.491 (#176) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ETSU | CIT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.4% | 45.1% |
| 3PT% | 32.7% | 38.9% |
| REB / G | 36.9 | 36.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.73 | 1.20 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.3% | 54.5% |
| TOV% | 22.7% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 30.7% | 24.6% |
| FT Rate | 21.5% | 26.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.8% | 52.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.1% | 14.5% |
| DRB% | 72.6% | 73.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.8% | 21.0% |
Game Analysis
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