Betting Lines
| Spread | NDSU -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 120.5 Over |
| Money | KC +163 NDSU -150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | KC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NDSU +4 | 138 | Lost |
| Massey | KC -0.3 (-4.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 118.1 (+19.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 27% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 31% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NDSU -1.2 (-2.8) | 125.6 (+12.4) | 42% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NDSU -0.9 (-3.1) | 122.9 (+15.1) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NDSU -0.9 (-3.1) | 127.2 (+10.8) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NDSU -0.6 (-3.4) | 127.9 (+10.1) | 40% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | NDSU 95 – 59 KC |
| Jan 9, 2026 | NDSU 97 – 73 KC |
| Feb 7, 2025 | NDSU 78 – 72 KC |
| Jan 17, 2025 | NDSU 71 – 64 KC |
| Feb 9, 2024 | NDSU 82 – 78 KC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | KC | NDSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-13 | 15-12 |
| Conference | 7-7 | 11-5 |
| Home | 8-3 | 6-2 |
| Away | 2-8 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 62.4 | 69.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.6 | 67.7 |
| Massey | -2.3 (#203) | -0.0 (#163) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.01 (#310) | -0.53 (#205) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.07 (#290) | -0.76 (#219) |
| RPI | 0.432 (#280) | 0.490 (#179) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | KC | NDSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.5% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 35.6% | 34.5% |
| REB / G | 29.4 | 37.2 |
| OREB / G | 7.2 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.77 | 0.77 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.2% | 50.2% |
| TOV% | 21.7% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 23.6% | 27.6% |
| FT Rate | 17.7% | 25.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.1% | 48.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.8% | 13.9% |
| DRB% | 75.5% | 80.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 40.3% | 16.3% |
Game Analysis
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