Betting Lines
| Spread | MIZ -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
| Money | MIZ -500 TCU +450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MIZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MIZ +4 | 200 | Won |
| Massey | MIZ -12.8 (-8.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.7 (+64.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MIZ -11.7 (-7.7) | 137.3 (+62.7) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MIZ -9.7 (-5.7) | 137.3 (+62.7) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MIZ -11.6 (-7.6) | 138.2 (+61.8) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MIZ -12.1 (-8.1) | 138.6 (+61.4) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MIZ | TCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-10 | 12-14 |
| Conference | 8-8 | 5-11 |
| Home | 8-4 | 6-7 |
| Away | 6-4 | 3-6 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.4 | 66.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.9 | 71.2 |
| Massey | 13.0 (#28) | 2.8 (#123) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.79 (#19) | 2.04 (#45) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.40 (#23) | 2.06 (#72) |
| RPI | 0.647 (#7) | 0.545 (#95) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MIZ | TCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 44.5% |
| 3PT% | 28.6% | 34.7% |
| REB / G | 37.4 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.1% | 51.1% |
| TOV% | 19.3% | 21.5% |
| ORB% | 30.4% | 28.5% |
| FT Rate | 29.3% | 19.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.8% | 48.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 70.0% | 71.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.8% | 17.3% |
Game Analysis
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