Betting Lines
| Spread | BUF -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 160.5 Under |
| Money | BUF -138 OHIO +150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BUF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | OHIO +1 | 151 | Lost |
| Massey | BUF -4.1 (-5.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 163.3 (-12.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 58% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BUF -5.0 (-6.0) | 157.7 (-6.7) | 70% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BUF -4.0 (-5.0) | 152.9 (-1.9) | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BUF -5.0 (-6.0) | 157.1 (-6.1) | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | BUF -5.2 (-6.2) | 158.2 (-7.2) | 68% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | OHIO 95 – 83 BUF |
| Jan 10, 2026 | OHIO 91 – 80 BUF |
| Jan 8, 2025 | OHIO 88 – 79 BUF |
| Mar 6, 2024 | OHIO 78 – 66 BUF |
| Jan 31, 2024 | OHIO 91 – 70 BUF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BUF | OHIO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-9 | 17-8 |
| Conference | 12-5 | 9-5 |
| Home | 8-3 | 8-3 |
| Away | 5-3 | 4-4 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 5-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.4 | 78.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.9 | 72.6 |
| Massey | 6.0 (#91) | 4.4 (#105) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.05 (#168) | 0.19 (#157) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.25 (#158) | 0.39 (#152) |
| RPI | 0.496 (#169) | 0.513 (#143) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BUF | OHIO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.1% | 47.5% |
| 3PT% | 33.6% | 36.3% |
| REB / G | 43.3 | 33.1 |
| OREB / G | 14.3 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 1.52 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.5% | 54.9% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 35.3% | 28.3% |
| FT Rate | 18.7% | 21.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.4% | 52.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.3% | 20.8% |
| DRB% | 71.7% | 72.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.9% | 24.1% |
Game Analysis
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