Betting Lines
| Spread | SBU -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Over |
| Money | SBU -600 GMU +500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SBU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SBU +17 | 151 | Won |
| Massey | SBU -12.6 (+4.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.1 (+22.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SBU -12.1 (+4.9) | 130.3 (+20.7) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SBU -10.3 (+6.7) | 132.1 (+18.9) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SBU -10.7 (+6.3) | 133.6 (+17.4) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SBU -10.8 (+6.2) | 132.0 (+19.0) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | SBU 63 – 57 GMU |
| Feb 28, 2026 | GMU 71 – 58 SBU |
| Jan 31, 2026 | GMU 77 – 73 SBU |
| Jan 22, 2025 | GMU 75 – 62 SBU |
| Jan 20, 2024 | GMU 69 – 60 SBU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SBU | GMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-5 | 13-9 |
| Conference | 11-4 | 8-6 |
| Home | 8-1 | 7-3 |
| Away | 3-3 | 3-4 |
| Neutral | 5-1 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.0 | 71.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 61.1 | 69.9 |
| Massey | 10.2 (#55) | 0.1 (#160) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.59 (#24) | 0.38 (#144) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.27 (#26) | 0.25 (#159) |
| RPI | 0.629 (#13) | 0.519 (#133) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SBU | GMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.9% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 30.0% | 31.7% |
| REB / G | 39.6 | 38.7 |
| OREB / G | 13.2 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.30 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.1% | 49.0% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 20.0% |
| ORB% | 35.0% | 30.5% |
| FT Rate | 22.3% | 18.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.0% | 48.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.5% | 19.8% |
| DRB% | 71.2% | 73.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.3% | 21.7% |
Game Analysis
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